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Nothing much has happened since yesterdays post. BTCUSD is still in a tight range, and currently trading at the 40,000 level. This mini range has a VAH around the 40,200 level and VAL around 39,400. While I still favor a move up to the resistance level at 41,300 followed by a drop, I do see two possible scenarios. See the image below, for a simplified explanation and read on for more details.
First option is to see a drop from the current level, down below the VAL, preferably breaking the recent swing low at 38,800, and then see BTCUSD move up from here. A break and retest of the 41,300 level, could indicate possible upside and a move all the way towards the 45,000 level.
The second option is as mentioned yesterday. A move up to test and preferably break the 41,300 level, followed by a step decline in price with volume behind the move. If we do break the mentioned level and close back below it with more volume than on the break itself, I will look to enter a short trade with a target around the 35,000 level.
Finally, it is possible we will see something completely different. Maybe a break of the 41,800 level with an immediate continuation to the upside. Perhaps we will see a drop first, followed by a move up above the critical level, followed by a drop down to the 35,000 level. Anything is possible but I am personally looking to enter a trade based on the two options highlighted above. A break of 41,300 and a close below it with volume would be an ideal short position. A break of 41,300 followed by a retest would be a solid spot for a long trade.